Can you smell that? The excitement pervades the cold rain, the dreary work days, finally. The anxiety of millions of fans, the hopes and dreams of championships, and that feeling inside each and every one of you that lets you know baseball is here! What a long winter we have had with snow piling up in NYC faster than you could shovel it. Almost too long overdue, spring is here and baseball too! For the somewhat revamped Yankees, this is the starting point for a marathon of a season, where the weak are castoff like dirty napkins and the strong rise above adversity. Will they have the fortitude to win 90 games? Will they be crushed by the ever improving AL East talent? It all starts with the active roster, those 25 men who bear the load of every die hard fan. So let's take a trip around the horn, up the mound, and down to the bullpen.
Starting Defense: Superior Outfield, Questionable Infield
1st Base, #25, Mark Teixeira: Big question Mark here. He had a miserable OPS of .413 this spring. Maybe you shouldn't but compare that to the 1.285 in 2009 Spring Training. Is the wrist stiff? Is he protecting it? Will he be able to rediscover his power or contact? Too often it seems he can't locate the pitch. I feel he is going to whiff a lot more than you or I would like.
2nd Base, #14, Brian Roberts: If he stays healthy, expect an OPS around .700. As a 36 year old with health issues, he offers little offensive upside. His main role will be to field cleanly and collect a hit every other game. Any home runs, and he will hit some, are just a plus.
3rd Base, #33, Kelly Johnson: In 250+ innings of work in the infield last year, he had only 1 error. He also had a decent range factor at 2B and 3B. Or roughly put, he should have the same defensive impact Rodriguez had last year. Considering A-Rod's injuries and decline, Johnson is a nearly identical replacement with 0 times the headache. There's a good chance he picks up his HR output, but his average isn't going over .240 anytime soon.
Shortstop, #2, Derek Jeter: This will be the last season we will hear Bob Sheppard's voice at Yankee Stadium. Let that sink in for a bit. . . The hope is that Jeter will rediscover his form and put singles into play as opposed to DP'ing Ellsbury all the time. But the realistic view is of a 40 year old SS coming off an ankle injury who hasn't been shown anything amazing this spring. Now, you can never count Jeter out, but it would behoove you to think of him around a .250 - .270 hitter with little power. The good news is he seems to be moving well, which will help keep his limited range solid. And you know he always had a steady arm. Don't expect the amazing play but rather the error free defense.
Left Field, #11, Brett Gardner: Entering his age 30 season, you know what to expect from Gardner: good at bats, high pitch counts, great defense, speed in the outfield and on the basepaths. My bold prediction of the year: 10+ home runs for Gardner this year.
Center Field, #22, Jacoby Ellsbury: Health is a concern. A leg injury that kept him out for most of the spring probably isn't good. But Ellsbury should start in CF. His defense and speed, combined with Gardner's, should allow the Yanks to cheat a lot when Soriano has to play right. The pitching staff should benefit from the defensive alignment he affords. I don't think he has another 52 steal season, but if he can keep his OBP above .340, I don't see why a 30 steal season isn't in the picture. As long as he is healthy, he'll remain an important game changer with his speed.
Right Field, #36, Carlos Beltran: If there is one thing Beltran can do, it is hit. He has averaged 150 hits in 150 games over his last three seasons. Consistency is key. With his lefty swing, topping 20 home runs should be easy. Getting to 30 like he had in 2012 is possible. With the DH spot, the Yanks will be able to keep Beltran rested which should help him stay healthy for the majority of the year. While he is no Gardner, he can still hold his own in the outfield. Coupled with Ellsbury shading right and there are no worries from the fans.
Catcher, #34, Brian McCann: What's this? A serviceable catcher who can actually hit? The Yankees haven't been this blessed behind the plate in some time. I loved this signing and think McCann is going to be the real difference maker for the team this year. Because of his bat, you can expect better pitches for those he is protecting as well as more RBIs. More runs equals better chance of winning. Love, love, love this set up.
Designated Hitter: Designated Sunflower Seed Chewer
DH, #12, Alfonso Soriano: Currently listed as day-to-day, Soriano looks to continue his semi-resurgence. He will see some time in right field but will serve primarily as the DH. Loves the low ball, not a fan of offspeed. But if he hits like he did in the 2nd half of last year, management and fans will be pleased.
Starting Rotation: All the best names end in "A"
#52, CC Sabathia: Can Sabathia still get hitters out without his fastball? I want to say yes, but at the same time, I am worried. The key to a good changeup is to make it look like your fastball but have a large speed difference between the two. At the moment, the range is less than 8 miles. If hitters can pick up his changeup, it will be home run city. CC will need to keep them off balance with his slider and work in the cutter more. I don't think he will be as bad as last year, but the days of "ace" and "CC" are gone. This will probably be his last Opening Day start. I expect him to transition towards the #2 rotation spot at the end of the year. Before we lose all hope, don't forget he still has great control and that can definitely keep him relevant for a few more years
#18, Hiroki Kuroda: While Sabathia deals with diminished velocity, Kuroda still marches on with his deception and skill. Will he be exhausted after the All-Star break again? Probably not. The Yankees have good depth in the rotation, such that if he needed to rest, Girardi could spot start Phelps with confidence or extend to a 6 man rotation. Kuroda did mention that Tanaka had not really asked him too much about the MLB. This will probably change as the real games take place. If you're asking me, I don't see a better mentor for Tanaka than Kuroda in all of baseball.
#47, Ivan Nova: Is this the year Nova puts it all together? I say yes. But there is a caveat: he must reduce his WHIP. Last year's 1.28 is not going to cut it as "ace" material. Does he have the repertoire and skill to reduce that? Yes! His slider is a great pitch. He has already pitched an immaculate inning and posted 150+ strikeouts in 2012. As he turns 27 this year, I believe he will find his groove, drop his WHIP down, maintain a 3.30 ERA, and reach 200 strikeouts.
#19, Masahiro Tanaka: With a seamless transition from Japan to the US, Tanaka has given fans many reasons to feel good about this signing. As is the case with most Japanese pitchers, he has an assortment of different pitches to use. It will be up to Larry Rothschild, Girardi, McCann, and Tanaka to figure out which ones work best against hitters he has never seen before. But as long as the young stud keeps working hard, he should have no problem in the MLB. I think he will garner some votes for ROY for sure. The most important part of having him here is thinking of who isn't here. That's right, Phil Hughes. Since Hughes went to Minnesota, the Yankees have replaced him with someone younger and more talented. And that is good news all around.
#35, Michael Pineda: Dealing with Andy Pettite's retirement will be tough. However, it should be comforting to fans knowing that Pineda still has some upside. Surgeries are never fun and can ruin careers, but this spring, he seems to have bounced back to a reasonable level. As long as he competes every 5th day and keeps his ERA in the 4.00 range, I think Cashman will be happy. Better yet, as long as he doesn't gain 40 pounds and get demoted to AAA, fans will be happy. Yes, that was a dig at Jesus Montero.
Bullpen: AKA the 5th starter competition runners up
I hate talking about the bullpen, simply because anyone can put it all together for one year, but few are ever truly dominant. Girardi and his Notebook will be responsible for mixing, matching, and confusing hitters all season. As fans, we should be delighted to see Betances succeed! A true homegrown (from the Bronx) pitcher is one all New Yorkers can get behind. With Phelps, Warren, and Nuno in the pen, Girardi has decent caliber but no one overpowering this year. Ole Reliable Robertson will get his shot at closing; he will be fine. You have to hope Shawn Kelley can improve on that 4+ ERA from last year and that Matt Thornton is healthy enough to provide 60 or so innings. But realistically, expect a trade for a bullpen arm sometime in June.
Reserves: Yeah, I have no pun here.
Infielder, #93, Dean Anna: Congratulations to Dean Anna. The 27 year old will be making his MLB debut after spending 6 years in the minors. Anna was very stoic after hearing the news, feeling that it would hit him more after the season began. If we go by his minor league career, he's a decent fielder at 2B, SS, and 3B. Has not spent much time at 1st, so he will probably shift to 3rd when Johnson replaces Teixeira at 1st. Steady bat, steady glove, should be a steady backup. Although he led the PCL in hitting last year, I don't expect him to garner enough bats for him to make a difference.
Infielder, #89, Yangervis Solarte: This will be the first Yangervis on the Yankees, ever. Besides having a unique name, he gives Yankee fans hope that they won't have to see Nunez again. In all likelihood, Solarte will be the one to go down to the Minors once Brendan Ryan is back from the DL. While he did have some amazing ST stats, it is important to remember he hit all 4 of his home runs in the beginning of Spring Training and collected only 3 hits in 13 AB's over his last 10 games. But like Anna, he will be making his MLB debut, and he helps keep Nuneeeeeez off the field.
Outfielder, #31, Ichiro Suzuki: As 4th outfielder, Suzuki will be responsible for spelling Gardner in left or defensive replacement for Beltran/Soriano. His hitting has really tailed off in the last two seasons, but the bat and speed still need to be respected. If Ichiro were not on the team, this spot may have gone to a Chris Dickerson-type player. Oh well.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Friday, March 28, 2014
Jump on the bandwagon!
Whenever the topic of the Yankees season outlook comes up, too often I hear so much doubt and pessimism. Granted, I love the Yankees and would root for them regardless of who was playing, but I do not see why fans shouldn't go into a season with unbridled hope. Why should they restrain themselves from predicting World Series Championships? What is the point of being a fan if you cannot for one day say "My team is better than yours!". As we approach opening day on Monday, all teams (excluding the Dodgers and Diamondbacks), have the same record and same opportunity to win it all. Last year's Red Sox proved that preseason predictions mean nothing. As a Yankee fan, indulge yourself. Feel free to proclaim AL East winners and talk trash to other teams. Here are a few reasons why.
I have mentioned it before; two words: Brian McCann. No matter what people say about the infield or bullpen, simply remind them that the Yankees will be starting a major league caliber catcher who has some All-Star selections and can actually hit. Do we need him to be a superstar? No. All he has to do is play better than Chris (where is he now?) Stewart.
Ichiro Suzuki is our 5th outfielder, not our 3rd. The depth chart is set with Beltran and most likely Soriano in front of Suzuki. Every opponent likes to throw out the "old" word and drag Suzuki's name into the conversation. Politely remind them he is simply here due to contract and only responsible for spot starts, defense, and all things Japanese.
Bullpen issues? Do you remember Preston Claiborne? He was just sent to AAA. Someone who was an integral part of the bullpen last season regressed so much that he had to be sent down. Now, this is a negative, until you remember no one was really familiar with Claiborne last year before he put up good numbers. With Betances looking to make the big league club, Phelps in the long man, and Warren adding depth, I see no problems that Girardi "master of the bullpen" can't handle. Every year he constructs a working pen and tends to match them up correctly. Yes, it may take a month to work everything out, but come October, when bullpens matter most, the Yankees will be ready.
And the last talking point for Yankees fans to bolster unbridled hope: the starting rotation. When you pay $155 million for a 4th starter and a former top prospect is your 5th, you know management has got to feel confident in the rotation. Let that confidence trickle down to us lay people. Drink the Kool-Aid if you will, you won't regret it.
Once Girardi settles all the positions and bullpen, I will publish a season preview. Baseball is back!
I have mentioned it before; two words: Brian McCann. No matter what people say about the infield or bullpen, simply remind them that the Yankees will be starting a major league caliber catcher who has some All-Star selections and can actually hit. Do we need him to be a superstar? No. All he has to do is play better than Chris (where is he now?) Stewart.
Ichiro Suzuki is our 5th outfielder, not our 3rd. The depth chart is set with Beltran and most likely Soriano in front of Suzuki. Every opponent likes to throw out the "old" word and drag Suzuki's name into the conversation. Politely remind them he is simply here due to contract and only responsible for spot starts, defense, and all things Japanese.
Bullpen issues? Do you remember Preston Claiborne? He was just sent to AAA. Someone who was an integral part of the bullpen last season regressed so much that he had to be sent down. Now, this is a negative, until you remember no one was really familiar with Claiborne last year before he put up good numbers. With Betances looking to make the big league club, Phelps in the long man, and Warren adding depth, I see no problems that Girardi "master of the bullpen" can't handle. Every year he constructs a working pen and tends to match them up correctly. Yes, it may take a month to work everything out, but come October, when bullpens matter most, the Yankees will be ready.
And the last talking point for Yankees fans to bolster unbridled hope: the starting rotation. When you pay $155 million for a 4th starter and a former top prospect is your 5th, you know management has got to feel confident in the rotation. Let that confidence trickle down to us lay people. Drink the Kool-Aid if you will, you won't regret it.
Once Girardi settles all the positions and bullpen, I will publish a season preview. Baseball is back!
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Mets Spring Training!
One of the best sporting experiences I have had the pleasure of enjoying so far was a Spring Training game in Port St. Lucie. Just last week, I flew down and had the chance to see the Miami Marlins play the Mets. The game itself was nothing too exciting, but the atmosphere and arena were fantastic.
There is no bad seat. The stadium is not much larger than a minor league stadium, if at all. The outfield truly does have plain lawn so you can sunbathe at the game or let the kids run around. And the price for a seat was reasonable. Sitting about six rows back, I could see and yell to the players easily. Of course being the troublemaker I am, I tried to heckle Giancarlo Stanton by repeatedly calling him Mike. He, in return, crushed two home runs. But that is beside the point. The ability to get so close to the players on such a reasonable price was a dream!
Food and beverage prices were much lower than expected. While the beer was cold and refreshing, the hot dogs left me wanting more. I grabbed a Mets plastic cap full of tacos which were surprisingly delectable. All of the ushers and attendants were friendly. And with the seats so close to the field, catching a foul ball or a tossed ball from the exiting players was easy. In fact, the only issue I had was the hot sun, but there were plenty of shaded seats just to the left.
If you ever vacation in Florida during March, swing by the Spring Training games. You're going to love it, I guarantee it.
There is no bad seat. The stadium is not much larger than a minor league stadium, if at all. The outfield truly does have plain lawn so you can sunbathe at the game or let the kids run around. And the price for a seat was reasonable. Sitting about six rows back, I could see and yell to the players easily. Of course being the troublemaker I am, I tried to heckle Giancarlo Stanton by repeatedly calling him Mike. He, in return, crushed two home runs. But that is beside the point. The ability to get so close to the players on such a reasonable price was a dream!
Food and beverage prices were much lower than expected. While the beer was cold and refreshing, the hot dogs left me wanting more. I grabbed a Mets plastic cap full of tacos which were surprisingly delectable. All of the ushers and attendants were friendly. And with the seats so close to the field, catching a foul ball or a tossed ball from the exiting players was easy. In fact, the only issue I had was the hot sun, but there were plenty of shaded seats just to the left.
If you ever vacation in Florida during March, swing by the Spring Training games. You're going to love it, I guarantee it.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Rangers trade Capt. Cally!
Time to....say goodbye!!
Callahan, unwilling to go lower on money, has been traded for Martin St. Louis of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Glen Sather, GM of the Rangers, unwilling to go higher on money/ years, has packaged Cally with some conditional picks in return for top notch goal scorer St. Louis.
What do the Rangers lose? Their captain, their heart and soul, some toughness, lots of grit, and an unnerving distraction. Callahan asked for quite the sum over the summer. Sather, trying to keep financial flexibility long term, denied the years (8) and price (7.5). As late as today, the two sides had gotten down to 6 years but were uneasy with the 6.5 mil asking price. But with Callahan gone and Gerardi extended, the Rangers can focus solely on winning for the next few months. And St. Louis is sure to help.
The Rangers received a points machine with 61 points in 62 games. While he won't hit and probably won't block like Callahan does, what he will do is setup Nash, reheat the chemistry with Richards, and, as all Rangers fans hope, help lead this team deep into the playoffs. Does he re-sign with the Rangers? I think so. He expressed his desire to be traded here, so in all likelihood, he probably signs for 3 years/ 6 mil. This is ideally what Sather would want as it is the same price for Callahan but half the contract length.
The one caveat here is the picks. But picks are never guaranteed to work out. Granted, the Rangers have had decent results in developing prospects. However, if this trade works out and the Rangers make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, they are not looking at a Top-10 pick. Would you have pulled the trigger and traded someone that may have walked for a chance to win now? I agree with Sather; I would.
Callahan, unwilling to go lower on money, has been traded for Martin St. Louis of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Glen Sather, GM of the Rangers, unwilling to go higher on money/ years, has packaged Cally with some conditional picks in return for top notch goal scorer St. Louis.
What do the Rangers lose? Their captain, their heart and soul, some toughness, lots of grit, and an unnerving distraction. Callahan asked for quite the sum over the summer. Sather, trying to keep financial flexibility long term, denied the years (8) and price (7.5). As late as today, the two sides had gotten down to 6 years but were uneasy with the 6.5 mil asking price. But with Callahan gone and Gerardi extended, the Rangers can focus solely on winning for the next few months. And St. Louis is sure to help.
The Rangers received a points machine with 61 points in 62 games. While he won't hit and probably won't block like Callahan does, what he will do is setup Nash, reheat the chemistry with Richards, and, as all Rangers fans hope, help lead this team deep into the playoffs. Does he re-sign with the Rangers? I think so. He expressed his desire to be traded here, so in all likelihood, he probably signs for 3 years/ 6 mil. This is ideally what Sather would want as it is the same price for Callahan but half the contract length.
The one caveat here is the picks. But picks are never guaranteed to work out. Granted, the Rangers have had decent results in developing prospects. However, if this trade works out and the Rangers make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, they are not looking at a Top-10 pick. Would you have pulled the trigger and traded someone that may have walked for a chance to win now? I agree with Sather; I would.
Monday, March 3, 2014
What Should the Mets do about Noah Syndergaard?
Having a brilliant, young pitcher should never be a problem. But with the New York Mets, things are always complicated. On one hand, GM Alderson is saying they are capable of 90 wins. Is this all smoke and mirrors, fluff to maintain his favor with the owners and fans? Or is he really that confident in his team? Does he perhaps know something or plan something we as fans don't? If so, the most logical piece to this puzzle is Noah Syndergaard.
Syndergaard was traded to the Mets along with Travis d'Arnaud in exchange for RA Dickey and random pieces. d'Arnaud already seems to be the starting catcher for now, while Syndergaard appeared to start in AA or AAA. But what everyone didn't expect, and I mean just about everyone other than Syndergaard himself, was for him to blow us away with his Spring Training. The one they call "Thor" has a fastball not too common, routinely hitting 95 and topping out at 98+. The previous years work shows good promise. The old fashioned stats show a future top level starter. The advanced stats reveal more about his bad luck from BABIP (batting average on balls in play) with an impressive K/BB ratio of almost 4/1.
The young 21 year old still has to refine his breaking ball though, which he could do if he were in the minors. But if the Mets were to bring him up in say, May, the expectations would be for him to complement Wheeler on the back end of the rotation. Before Spring Training, everyone was talking about the future for Syndergaard, yet after his 2 K start today in which he faced the Braves regulars, everyone must wonder not IF but WHEN he will make it to the big leagues this year. I do not expect him to break camp with the club but do expect him up before September. With a talent like his, no club wants to rush or waste it. I feel for Sandy Alderson and TC having to make that decision. Guess that's why they get paid the big bucks and I write a blog.
Syndergaard was traded to the Mets along with Travis d'Arnaud in exchange for RA Dickey and random pieces. d'Arnaud already seems to be the starting catcher for now, while Syndergaard appeared to start in AA or AAA. But what everyone didn't expect, and I mean just about everyone other than Syndergaard himself, was for him to blow us away with his Spring Training. The one they call "Thor" has a fastball not too common, routinely hitting 95 and topping out at 98+. The previous years work shows good promise. The old fashioned stats show a future top level starter. The advanced stats reveal more about his bad luck from BABIP (batting average on balls in play) with an impressive K/BB ratio of almost 4/1.
The young 21 year old still has to refine his breaking ball though, which he could do if he were in the minors. But if the Mets were to bring him up in say, May, the expectations would be for him to complement Wheeler on the back end of the rotation. Before Spring Training, everyone was talking about the future for Syndergaard, yet after his 2 K start today in which he faced the Braves regulars, everyone must wonder not IF but WHEN he will make it to the big leagues this year. I do not expect him to break camp with the club but do expect him up before September. With a talent like his, no club wants to rush or waste it. I feel for Sandy Alderson and TC having to make that decision. Guess that's why they get paid the big bucks and I write a blog.
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