Thursday, January 24, 2013

Where do the Yanks rank in the AL East

While other teams have made significant deals this offseason, the Yanks have relatively stood still. They've signed several players to minor league contracts in hopes that they can create a healthy competition for a 4th outfield position. For those who are worried that the Yanks have been leapfrogged due to inactivity, remember the words from Douglas Adams: Don't Panic!

The Blue Jays have definitely improved and they should expect the services of Joey Bats sometime this year (wrist). With RA Dickey at their disposal, they will actually have a serviceable ace for the first time since Doc Halladay was throwing up North. The rotation should fill out nicely with Josh Johnson and Buehrle.

And as I recall, the Red Sox finally finished that deal for Napoli. Napoli is a big fan of Fenway and should put up decent numbers. John Lackey will pitch again apparently.

Everyone remembers how the Orioles gave the Yanks such fits the last few years. Fortunately, the one guy who seemed to really get up for the Yanks, Mark Reynolds, is off to greener pastures in Cleveland. Which is to say, the Orioles didn't want to pay him or just didn't want him. He was very error prone but could definitely crank a few out. They will also see the return of Nolan Reimold this year.

As for the last team in this division, the Tampa Bay Rays. Well, the James Shield's trade may end up being a big win for them. But trading for potential is always risky. However, they will still be in the mix for 85 - 90 games simply because Joe Maddon is a fantastic manager. He could take the Mets and make them good. . . .maybe.

The Yanks are old, they haven't improved; we've heard this song before. But let's not forget, this old team won the division and went to the ALCS with virtually the same roster. Swisher is out which will result in fewer bombs. You can't just replace 20 HRs/ 80 RBIs so easily and that will affect them. However, with Ichiro seeing more playing time, look for more runs generated, if they figure out how to hit with RISP. Youkilis will man 3rd for awhile and with Kevin Long's help, can probably be more serviceable than expected. And the rotation should be set with CC, Kuroda, Pettite, Hughes, and Nova. What about Pineda? Still here. Still working on getting back to the game.

There is also some promise on the Farm. We may have to wait a few more years to really get an impact player, but there are 2 or 3 solid pitchers ready to take over reliever roles and spot starts. David Phelps can probably be flipped for a bat off the bench or be held to see if he can hold his own on the back end. Rivera should be back, Robertson is still around, and we can't wait to see Mark Montgomery make his debut.

Though they haven't made a big move, they've resigned important pieces, have some home grown talent, and filled some holes. Will it be enough? That's the best part! I can't wait to find out!

Friday, January 18, 2013

If I had the first pick in my fantasy baseball league, I would choose. . .



You can almost never go wrong with a first pick in any draft (exception Greg Oden) as there are a myriad of reasons for picking one of the all-star sluggers. But in case you are new to Fantasy, never pick a pitcher with the first pick. A true ace can give you wins, Ks, and ERA every 5 days. But having a power bat that is in the lineup every day can carry an offense. This year’s field of top picks is nearly identical to last year’s. There are solid outfield options in Josh Hamilton (career .304/.363/.549), Mike Trout (.306/.379/.532), and Ryan Braun (.313/.374/.568). You could also go with the ever popular Miguel Cabrera, fresh off his first but definitely due batting title. Or another power infielder, such as Robinson Cano. What you’re really looking for is one of two things. Health, first and foremost is important. If your player isn’t healthy, he ain’t gonna help your lineup. Another factor is consistency. Some players heat up during the year, others are steady without being gaudy. Then of course there are outliers that should influence your decision. Is he going to pick up steals? Does he have enough protection around him to get good looks at fastballs?

Looking at these criteria, let’s break down the field.

If you want the big HR and RBI numbers, it’s hard not to choose Cabrera. He’s led the league in at least one of the Triple Crown categories almost every year for a while now. He’s going to have another great year with Fielder around him and Jackson in front of him. You can’t go wrong in power.
Looking for the 5-tool player? Definitely want to go with Mike Trout. He stole 49 bases, while scoring 129 runs, and hitting 30 Home Runs. 

While Hamilton doesn’t have the speed of Trout, he has the power to match Cabrera. And when he gets hot, he’s really hot. For most leagues, Hamilton won entire months for a team, though he did go cold as well. Another thing to look at is his Ks. Anything over 100 isn’t too great. And Hamilton and Trout both struck out over 120 times last year. Cabrera was the better of the trio with 98.
You can look at WAR if you want, but let’s keep it simple shall we. We have two main power hitters with no steal potential and one with a strikeout/ cold streak risk. The better choice is Cabrera over Hamilton.

But match Cabrera against Trout. While Cabrera will have better HR and RBI numbers, Trouts speed should help in the steals and runs department. You can always find a home run hitter who will sacrifice average for power. And you can probably find a base stealer who sacrifices power for OBP. Supplementing for the weakness of the two won’t be a problem. Detroit has a good lineup and will probably match last year’s output. Trout is young and could definitely outperform his last year.

However, I’m going with what I know. If I had the first pick, I would choose Cabrera. I know he’s going to hit 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and .300. While Trout is intriguing, if he gets hurt playing so recklessly, he could be out for some time. And who’s to say the league won’t figure him out and cause his K total to go up? 

Stick with Cabrera, he’s a sure thing.